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Democrat Jessica Bichler, a political newcomer who co-owns a Wilmington yoga studio, narrowly upset Senate Majority Leader Michael Lee on Tuesday, denying Lee both a sixth term representing New Hanover County and a chance to become the legislature’s most powerful leader. Bichler led Lee by more than 5 points, with all precincts reporting.

Had Lee prevailed, he would have been a frontrunner to succeed Phil Berger as Senate president pro tempore. Sen. Todd Johnson of Union County now appears to be the early favorite. Senate Republicans will likely vote on the new leader in early December. 

Other Republicans in swing Senate districts came up short as well. State Sen. Lisa Stone Barnes of Nash County and Kevin Crutchfield of Cabarrus County appear to have lost their races, based on initial results. As of late Tuesday, Buck Newton of Wilson County trailed as well. Republicans will lose their 30-20 supermajority in the upper chamber, and Senate Democrats will be able to sustain Gov. Josh Stein’s vetoes. 

Then-Gov. Pat McCrory appointed Lee to the Senate seat shortly before the 2014 election, which he won. He’d made two unsuccessful bids before, losing in the 2008 general election and the 2010 GOP primary. Lee lost to his Democratic challenger in 2018, but won the seat back in 2020 and became increasingly influential over the last six years.  

Lee, who won by about 9 points in 2024, faced significant headwinds this election, as voters across the country turned on President Donald Trump and the Republicans who have supported his policies. While Lee considers himself a conservative, he didn’t use that word on his website, and he avoided mentioning Trump during the campaign. 

“That’s where the generic ballot comes in,” Lee told The Assembly. “I don’t think I’m generic, but the generic ballot does weigh on people. I’m not a political expert, but I sense the overhang.”

Though Bichler wasn’t Democrats’ first choice to challenge Lee, her fundraising and message discipline impressed them. Bichler said she decided to run after her mother died last year. 

“The nail in the coffin that was just really personal to me was that my mom really valued PBS and NPR,” she told The Assembly. “And when [congressional Republicans] decided to cut funding, I just felt like all the advancements that her generation had gained for us were under attack.”

Despite Trump’s long shadow, local issues drove the campaign. Lee’s critics accused him of “putting big corporate interests before our families” by not cracking down on Chemours after the company dumped toxic chemicals into the Cape Fear River Basin. 

Lee countered that he had authored legislation in 2018 to address the crisis. He demanded that a guerrilla group take down cardboard cutouts placed around downtown Wilmington that depicted Lee in an “I ♥ Special Interest” T-shirt, holding a wad of cash, and urinating himself. 

“Mike Lee can stay pissed,” the group told The Assembly in an email. 

Legislative changes to a state incentive program that threatened Wilmington’s film industry also imperiled his reelection bid. But as majority leader, he had levers to pull. In early October, he announced a plan to pump an additional $31 million into the incentive program after the election, focusing on projects in and around New Hanover County.

Lee gambled that, despite the challenges he faced, he could sell conservative policies to his purple district. 

“The thing that I’ve learned is to be able to articulate what the policy is, what it does, and what it was intended to do,” Lee said. “Once you explain it to folks, they understand. Some people actually end up agreeing with it.”

This year, his bet came up short. 

Jeffrey Billman is politics editor for The Assembly. The former editor-in-chief of INDY in Durham, he holds a master's degree in public policy analysis from the University of Central Florida.